Betting on football: a model to predict match outcomes
in: Book of Short Papers SIS 2019, 2019.
Citation: Petretta, M., Schiavon, L., Diquigiovanni, J. (2019) Betting on football: a model to predict match outcomes, in Book of Short Papers SIS 2019 (Editors: Arbia, G., Peluso, S., Pini, A. and Rivellini, G.), ISBN: 9788891915108
Abstract: In the context of sports betting, estimates of probabilities related to specific events in a football match are quantities of deep interest. Starting from appropriate marginal and conditional distributions, a joint distribution is introduced in order to model the dependence between the number of goals scored by the two opposing teams. This model allows to obtain estimates of probabilities for all the possible match outcomes and, in so doing, to develop a betting strategy. An application is presented in this paper: it shows encouraging results and highlights satisfactory return in the long run.